Price hikes continue.
The USDA has released its early food forecast for 2025, projecting a year of moderate price increases and continued stability for food shoppers.
According to Agriculture Department economist Megan Sweitzer, food prices for grocery store items—referred to as “food at home”—are expected to rise by only 0.8% in 2025, the smallest increase in years.

Meanwhile, prices for food away from home, such as dining out, are predicted to grow by 3.5%, with overall food prices expected to increase by 1.9%.
“For most categories in 2025, we’re predicting price growth to be similar to 2024 and below long-term averages,” said Switzer.
The projections show that inflation pressures on the food system are easing. Issues like pandemic supply chain disruptions, high energy costs, and global conflicts that caused price hikes in past years have mostly settled.
Sweitzer also noted that energy prices fell by 3.2% in 2024, along with lower costs for raw farm products. These changes helped reduce food price inflation.
The USDA’s 2025 forecast mentions a small chance of food prices dropping in some categories. “It’s not very common for grocery prices to decline, but we did have a few years in 2016 and 2017 where prices declined again,” Sweitzer added.